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On two occasions here, on this blog, I’ve stepped way out of my comfort zone and made political predictions. They were both made on the same theory though. I’m a pretty good judge of people and their capabilities and I know how powerful the Web is.

Back in April of 2007 I made the claim that Idaho Republicans would lose a record number of elections in 2008. That prediction was made because of John Foster leaving his position at the Idaho Business Review where he revolutionized the paper’s Web presence and taking up the role as Executive Director for the Idaho Democratic Party.

Later in July of this year I had to *adjust* my prediction because John left his position at the Democratic party to head communications for Walt Minnick’s Congressional campaign. Walt was challenging Republican incumbent Bill Sali in one of the strongest Republican districts in one of the strongest Republican states.

I still held to my belief that with John’s capable hand guiding his communication and Web activities that Walt would win.  Minnick won by a few thousand votes. So I asked John: Just how right was I? - I like to hear other people tell me I’m right

Q - So how big of an impact do you realistically think the Web played in Walt Minnick’s win?

I think the web had a very big impact in Walt’s win. First, we used it extremely effectively for internal stuff - data, communications, organizing volunteers. And second, we used it effectively for making sure our message got out. The web allows you to do so much more than just ship out a press release. Any political operative who does not utilize all the tools at his/her disposal for creating the right kind of buzz (short or long-term) is committing political malpractice.

Q - Do you know how the Democrats across the state did?

As far as your prediction: We actually lost one seat in the legislature, which is quite good. Democrats usually lose five to 10 seats in presidential election years. So it wasn’t great or even good, but it wasn’t bad. But you throw Walt’s win into the mix and that trumps everything. I cannot begin to describe how big the win is. Historic.

So I’m not quite batting a thousand but not too bad for my first political predictions. Maybe I should quit while I’m ahead.

I would like to congratulate John on a well run campaign and thank him for taking the time to answer my questions.

Technorati Tags: Walt Minnick,Bill Sali,John Foster,Idaho,Democrats,Republicans,Predictions

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